Can I Mountain Bike the Kenai This Weekend?

Figuring out how the trails on the Kenai are going to ride, and whether they’ll be too snow-covered, rain-soaked, or overgrown with vegetation, might not be rocket science, but it's certainly not as obvious are riding in Southern California either.

Every year is different. Heavy winter snows, cold or hot springs, summer rains, the onset of the fall monsoon season, and early or late killing frosts can influence how quickly different trails come into or fall out of favor by as much as two weeks.

In general, I tend to target trails, or segments of longer trails, as listed below. In some cases, I may target certain trails (e.g., Russian Lakes, Johnson Pass) more heavily in the earlier part of the season, even if other trails like Resurrection or Lost Lake are snow-free, as the former will be unpleasant to ride once they become overgrown, while the latter will be ride-able through the height of summer and into autumn.

Mid-May through end of June:

Gull Rock Trail
Russian Lakes Trail
Johnson Pass (south end tends to come in 1-2 weeks prior to north end)
Devils Pass Trail
Cooper Landing to Swan Lake+ on Resurrection Pass Trail
Iditarod Historic Trail from Primrose Campground to Mile 17 of the Seward Highway

July through end of August

Resurrection Pass Trail
Devils Pass Trail
Iditarod Historic Trail from Bear Lake to Kenai Lake
Primrose Trail
Lost Lake Trail
Crescent Lake Trail

September through end of October

Devils Pass Trail
Swan Lake to East Creek on Resurrection Pass Trail (accessed by Devils Pass Trail)
Crescent Lake Trail
Iditarod Historic Trail from Bear Lake to Kenai Lake
Primrose Trail
Lost Lake Trail
Russian Lakes Trail (after a few good killing frosts)
South half of Johnson Pass Trail (after a few good killing frosts)

The Kenai at its best!

Within season, another tricky issue can be figuring out how muddy a trail will be due to recent rain, and whether they will be worth the drive. There are three well-placed RAWS weather stations that capture reliable accumulated precipitation data on the Kenai Peninsula that I make regular use of. A good rule is that for every 1/2-inch of accumulated rainfall, as many days should be allowed for the trails to dry out. Obviously, this is just a general rule, and needs to be evaluated in relation to how well the target trail drains, the time of year, and the weather before and after the rain.

Some trails on the Kenai are better armored and drained than others (listed below). Additionally, at the height of the growing season, plant uptake can help absorb a lot of ground moisture. Later in the season, as the plants stop growing and the days and nights get cooler, water tends to stand around for far longer. The best post-rainfall weather is of course, hot, sunny, and breezy.

 

RAWS Weather Stations

Granite Creek (South Turnagain Pass) (LINK) Best for north half of Johnson Pass
Kenai Lake (Moose Pass) (LINK) Best for south half of Johnson Pass; helpful for Crescent Lake and Primrose
Broadview (Cooper Landing) (LINK) Best for Resurrection Pass Trail, Russian Lakes Trail; helpful for Crescent Lake Trail
 

Pro tip: While other weather stations located on the Kenai that are run by the AK Department of Transportation, SNOTEL, and HADS don’t record accumulated precipitation, they do show daily rainfall amounts, along with temperatures and wind speeds. These stations are located in a much broader swath of locations, and can provide helpful clues as to what might be happening away from the RAWS sites. As we all know, the weather in AK can be very variable, and what is happening in one place, could be completely different just a mile or two away.

The other end of this guessing game is trying to figure out what the future holds, or more precisely, if rain is in the forecast, whether you will get wet. Realistically, this is much more involved. As a general rule, rains tend to be more persistent and heavier closer to Seward, and more showery further inland - but that's totally dependent on the storm track and severity of the weather system. If you're not a weather dork, the next best bet is to keep an eye on the weather a few days in advance, and use reliable forecast tools from the National Weather Service, not some Google app on your smart phone.

Wet Weather Best Bets (Season-Dependent)

Russian Lakes Trail
Devils Pass Trail
Lost Lake Trail
Primrose Trail
South end of Johnson Pass Trail
Iditarod Historic Trail from Primrose Campground to Mile 17 of the Seward Highway

Wet Weather Trails to Avoid

Resurrection Pass Trail
North end of Johnson Pass Trail